After hailing Cameroon’s resilience: IMF prescribes fiscal discipline, projects economic growth.

The IMF Executive Board completed the assessment on March 25.

It findings indicated that Cameroon’s economy expanded by an estimated 3.1 percent in 2025, below earlier projections due to disruptions to trade, services, and investment during the October to November presidential election period.

According to a report the IMF published on March 30, inflation eased to an average of 3.4 percent over the year, supported by declining food and transport costs.

Preliminary data, the report revealed, showed a deterioration in public finances, with the non-oil primary deficit widening to 2.6 percent of GDP, significantly above the 1.4 percent target set in the national budget. 

IMF attributed the shortfall to weaker-than-expected non-oil revenue collection and slippages in current expenditure. At the same time, it said the current account deficit widened to 3.9 percent of GDP in 2025, up from 3.3 percent in 2024, reflecting lower oil export revenues.

Growth to recover but risks persist

The IMF projects a cautious recovery in 2026, with economic growth expected to rise to 3.3 percent, driven in part by increased public investment. 

IMF forecast a decline in inflation to further to 2.9 percent. However, it said the current account deficit is expected to widen to 5.3 percent of GDP, largely due to falling cocoa prices.

Over the medium term, IMF projects growth to strengthen to around 4.6 percent, supported by diversification into mining and continued investment in electricity infrastructure. 

The current account deficit, IMF revealed, is expected to narrow to about 4.0 percent of GDP as these gains materialise. 

Despite the improved outlook, the IMF highlights significant downside risks, including tight global financial conditions, rising interest rates, reduced external aid, and volatility in commodity prices. 

It also identified ongoing security concerns and climate-related challenges as factors weighing on economic prospects. 

IMF also mentioned that pressures on foreign exchange reserves within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, CEMAC, could increase uncertainty and require further policy adjustments.

The report noted that higher global oil prices, linked to tensions in the Middle East, are expected to have a limited net impact in the short term, as increased oil revenues are partially offset by fuel subsidies under the current administered pricing system.

IMF calls for fiscal discipline 

IMF Directors called for stronger fiscal consolidation to safeguard debt sustainability and reinforce regional stability. They urged the authorities to boost domestic revenue mobilisation, tighten expenditure controls, and improve the efficiency of public spending and investment management in order to create room for infrastructure and social programmes.

The completion of fuel subsidy reforms was identified as a priority, alongside the introduction of an automatic fuel pricing mechanism combined with targeted support for vulnerable households to mitigate fiscal risks.

The IMF also emphasised the need to strengthen debt management, warning of a high risk of debt distress. 

Authorities were encouraged to prioritise concessional financing from development partners rather than costly commercial borrowing, and to incorporate an arrears clearance plan into a credible medium-term financing strategy. 

Reforms of State-owned enterprises and improvements in fiscal transparency were also highlighted as essential to reinforce fiscal resilience.

Financial sector & reform agenda under scrutiny

IMF said the financial sector remains under pressure. It pointed to elevated levels of non-performing loans and growing links between the state and the banking system. 

The expansion of the State’s role in banking, it said, prompted calls for stronger governance of public banks and continued vigilance.

The IMF stressed on the urgency of accelerating reforms related to anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism to facilitate Cameroon’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force, FATF, grey list. 

Measures to deepen financial inclusion and support financial sector development were also identified as key to sustaining higher growth.

IMF officials further underscored the importance of advancing structural reforms to support private sector-led growth, including improving governance, enhancing transparency, reducing regulatory constraints, and strengthening climate resilience.

Talks continue after programme end

The consultation comes after the conclusion of the country’s previous IMF-supported programme in July 2025. According to authorities, discussions are ongoing regarding a potential new arrangement. 

At an extraordinary CEMAC summit in Brazzaville on January 22, 2026, Heads of State emphasised the importance of maintaining IMF programmes to contain the erosion of foreign exchange reserves.

The IMF indicated that it will continue close engagement with Cameroon under the Post-Financing Assessment framework, with the next Article IV consultation expected on the standard 12-month cycle.

This article was first published in The Guardian Post Edition No:3749 of Thursday April 02, 2026