Commentary: 2025 presidentials; Why Biya regime dreads Kamto.

The tactics of fear may be what the National President of Cameroon Renaissance Movement, MRC, Prof Maurice Kamto, is using as one of his strategies in his move to wrestle power from the ruling CPDM regime.

Since Maurice Kamto joined the opposition bench after resigning from government to launch the MRC, he has been ruffling the feathers of the Biya regime with every move he makes. 

Some of the attributes of Kamto’s political style and aura around him have been sending cold shivers down the spines of Biya regime acolytes. 

The Biya regime has continued to be frightened by the continuous in-roads Kamto is making into the political landscape with each passing day. 

For this, the regime has been making all kinds of frantic moves to either clip his wings or put hurdles in his political path. 

The fear-stricken and panicky Biya regime, apparently having run out of political ideas, is now using what pundits have described as “undemocratic” and “illegal” means to elbow Kamto out of the race to the presidency in 2025.

Having come second at the October 2018 presidential election (though he still insists his “victory” was “stolen”), there is no gainsaying the fact that Maurice Kamto is now the biggest threat to the Biya regime. 

The reasons the Biya regime dreads Prof Maurice Kamto are legion.

Secret symperthisers within the CPDM

Maurice Kamto’s party, MRC, some analysts say, due to its lobbying, has won hearts within other political parties, including even within the ruling CPDM party. 

Analysts say MRC also has secret sympathisers in other parties such as Social Democratic Front, SDF; United Socialist Movement, UMS, of Pierre Kwemo and Front for Change in Cameroon, FCC of Hon Jean Michel Nintcheu. 

Kamto’s association with the radical Nintcheu, is being seen by the Biya regime as a combination to be dreaded. 

Some CPDM supporters, who are fed up with the regime and secretly nursing the wish for change in the country, but cannot show this in public, are said to be covertly pulling strings behind the scene in support of MRC. 

Many of such turncoat CPDM supporters are believed to have voted for MRC, during the October 2018 presidential election. This can be explained by the fact that Maurice Kamto, in that election, won in some hitherto CPDM strongholds.

Speculations are growing in some quarters that some regime barons could be secretly bankrolling the MRC.

Political bedfellows with other parties

Meanwhile, Kamto’s MRC has endeared itself to other political forces that may easily come into a coalition with it to sweep the Biya regime from power. 

This includes the civil society, which influence in an election cannot be over-emphasised. 

It should be recalled that in 1992, when the SDF and other opposition parties came into a coalition christened Union for Change, this propelled the then SDF presidential candidate, the late Ni John Fru Ndi, to almost winning the 1992 presidential election. 

Official results had put Fru Ndi second, with 35.97% of the votes, after Biya with 39.98%. 

However, Fru Ndi had declared himself winner, accusing Yaounde of having rigged the election. 

Until his demise on June 12, 2023, Fru Ndi continued to insist that he won the election.

With the foregoing, analysts say only a strong coalition can defeat the Biya regime at the presidential election. The Biya regime is thus jittery that the opposition may form a strong coalition that will invest Kamto as presidential candidate, who will then give the CPDM candidate a good run for his money.

No doubt, in March this year, the Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, ordered an end to activities of coalitions of political parties; Political Alliance for Change and the Alliance for Political Transition in Cameroon. 

Atanga Nji said the coalitions are “illegal,” calling them “clandestine movements”.

Human Rights Watch had described Atanga Nji’s moves as part of government’s crackdown on the opposition.

Strong ties with France

Prof Maurice Kamto’s supposed strong ties with France is also said to be one of the issues giving Biya regime stalwarts sleepless nights. 

His alleged collusion with a foreign power like France presents Kamto as a real threat to Yaounde.

With President Biya gradually shifting from France towards China and Russia, some analysts say, this has not gone down well with some politicians within the French political landscape who see Cameroon as France’s preserve. 

Such French personalities, analysts claim, may wish a change at the helm in Cameroon, for a reverse in policy towards China and Russia.

External lobbying force

Meanwhile, Kamto and his MRC are also said to have external lobbying institutions doing their bidding at the international scene and pulling the blanket to Kamto’s side. 

This strong external lobby, analysts say, was brought to the fore when, after the 2018 presidential election, Transparency International was pressured to come out powerfully to disclaim some election observers who were in Cameroon to observer the election, supposedly under Transparency International’s auspices. 

The MRC is said to have used its external lobby to pressure Transparency International to renounce the alleged fake election observers, in order to cast a shadow of doubt on the credibility of the election results.

Growing thirsty for change

The Biya regime has been in power for 42 years, and still counting. Many Cameroonians, especially the youth, fed up with the socioeconomic and political stagnation in the country, are hungry for change.   

A good number of these Cameroonians, wrongly or rightly, see MRC as a party that can bring the desired change. 

This is the more bolstered by the current perception that the SDF, which was hitherto seen as the party that could bring change in Cameroon, is now a satellite party or an appendage of the CPDM. 

Many now think they can only place their hope for change in Cameroon on Kamto and MRC. 

Solid national support base

A strong grassroots political base is one of the strengths of any politician or political party. 

One of Kamto’s strengths is his solid national support base, which does not only constitute of Bamilekes, but many from across the board nationally and internationally. 

On the other hand, some disgruntled Anglophones, especially those who are supporting the Ambazonia movement or have been victims of military operations in the North West and South West Regions, would readily throw their weight behind Kamto and MRC. 

Other Anglophones, who have been clamouring for a return to the federal system of government, but the government insists on decentralisation, may stand behind Kamto and MRC. Kamto has been focal about a return to federalism.

This, they will do, believing that if Kamto ascends to the supreme magistracy, he may grant their wish for federation.

Alleged romance with BAS

Though the MRC has insisted severally that it has no links with the radical diaspora movement, Brigade Anti-Sardinards, BAS, the Biya regime thinks BAS is a radical wing of MRC.

BAS is a collective of the Cameroonian diaspora opposed to President Paul Biya and his supporters. 

Created in 2018 by a group of Paris-based activists, including Calibri Calibro, the movement emerged following the presidential election of the same year, which saw the re-election of Biya.

Given that BAS emerged after an election for which Kamto was claiming victory, some political analysts and Biya regime adherents are convinced that the radical and violent movement is linked to Kamto’s MRC. 

However, the MRC has denied any link with BAS, which claims to be apolitical.

PBAS has been violent in its methods. 

On January 26, 2019, in reaction to what they described as "electoral hold-up" of the 2018 election, a few dozen BAS activists broke into the Cameroon embassy in France and caused huge destruction.

The movement has also attacked Cameroonians, including journalists, who they accuse of being in support of the Biya regime. 

Because of its violent nature, analysts fear BAS may end up as an Ambazonia-type movement, and if its supposed links with MRC are confirmed, this will not augur well for the CPDM regime. 

Bamileke financial sponsors

With the Bamilekes, who are majority supporters of MRC, being the financial and business heavyweights of the country, their financial support to the party may be a game changer within the political landscape. 

It has been mooted that some Bamileke businessmen, within both MRC and CPDM, have been mobilising financial resources to fund the campaign of Kamto, himself a Bamileke, at the 2025 presidential election.

Growing media sympathy 

Prof Maurice Kamto and MRC have been garnering sympathy within the media landscape. 

The party also has many bloggers and social media influencers out of the country carrying out its propaganda. 

Many media organs in the country are also increasingly taking interest in the activities of the party. 

Government has often accused Bamileke media owners of showing open sympathy for Kamto and the MRC.

Such media visibility, analysts are unanimous, is what the CPDM regime dreads so badly. 

MRC’s constant change of tactics

Kamto and his MRC have also been engaging in constant change of tactics, sometimes leaving the Biya regime confused. 

When the regime expects Kamto and his supporters to protest over certain issues, the party stays mute, but only acts when least expected. 

The MRC president’s courage and even his declaration not long ago that he is ready to die for the cause he is championing has left the regime jittery. 

Analysts say his recent defiant stance could signal the adoption of a radical opposition strategy in the run-up to the 2025 presidential election. This has left the Biya regime restless.

This story was first published in The Guardian Post issue No:3164 of Wednesday July 10, 2024