Senatorial election: ‘Mighty’ SDF at mercy of Biya!.

Those with keen interest in political calculations say they are yet to establish a scenario wherein the SDF will win a constituency in this year’s Senatorial election.

Analyses in this light gained steam after elections management body, Elections Cameroon, ELECAM, Tuesday, published the lists of candidates for the March 12 election to renew the Upper House of Parliament.

The SDF had initially deposited files of candidates to contest the election in the Adamawa and North West Regions. But its list in the Adamawa Region was disqualified. The party is now competing in the election only in the North West Region.

The SDF has tested Senatorial power since 2013 in the West, Adamawa and North West Regions.

In the Adamawa and West Regions, SDF’s pioneer Senators emerged under circumstances, which, many continue to say, were some sort of political leniency and appeasement that enabled the first legislature of the Senate to have a semblance of democracy.

In the second legislature spanning 2018 to 2022, the SDF lost in the West and Adamawa Regions. It, however, earned a spectacular victory in the North West Region.

This came by surprise given that the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement, CPDM, party had a majority of municipal councillors who constituted the electorate of the election.

SDF hoping for a presidential miracle

From 14 Senators in the 2013 senatorial race to just seven Senators in the 2018 senatorial election, the fortunes of the once vibrant party, analysts say, have continued to decline. This, many are now saying, shows that the SDF has lost its steam, verve and grip across the nation.

The party of Ni John Fru Ndi goes to the March 12 poll in the North West Region; having just one council (Bamenda III Council) and two Members of Parliament, MPs, from Njinikom and Fundong and Belo and Bum (Hons Njong Everistus and Wainachi Honourine) respectively.

The rest of the councils are CPDM-run, just like the North West Regional Assembly, wherein the ruling party enjoys an overwhelming control.

With these calculations brought to the limelight, many say, the once ‘mighty’ SDF is now at the mercy of the Head of State, President Paul Biya, if it hopes to have even one Senator in the third Senate legislature.

Political analysts say it would take only an unexpected scenario wherein CPDM municipal and regional councillors in the North West Region, will slam sanction votes on candidates invested for the March 12 exercise, for the SDF to have elected Senators.

This too, political watchers say, will only be possible in the circumstance where God is SDF’s neighbour.

The once vibrant political outfit is now left at the mercy of the one empowered by the constitution, President Paul Biya, to dream of having even one Senator in the upcoming mandate.

Going by popular thinking, except Biya shows mercy to the SDF to handpick at least one of its supporters and appoint Senator, the party should get ready to bid goodbye to the Senate.

This, it is being mooted, may be at least for the next five years or even for decades to come, depending on future political outcomes in the country.

Fru Ndi the lucky joker?

Even as President Paul Biya is yet to unveil his list of 30 appointed Senators, it is being mooted in some quarters that SDF National Chairman, John Fru Ndi, might be the lucky person from his party to come to Senate for the 2023-2028 mandate.

It should be recalled that Fru Ndi headed the party’s list for Senatorial election in 2013 in the North West Region. Unfortunately, the SDF lost to the CPDM.

His dashed ambitions of 2013, talk within the corridors of power in Yaounde now indicate, could be realised 10 years after, through a fiat of the man he has spent all his political career ‘fighting’ unsuccessfully.

Decade of misfortune for SDF?

The last eight years and still counting, many say, have been times of huge political misfortune for the SDF that once vibrated nationwide.

The crisis in the English-speaking regions since 2016 has cost the SDF its traditional fief of the North West and South West regions.

It is worst in the South West Region wherein the party moved from controlling four councils viz; Tiko, Kumba I, II and III councils and having a historic 10 seats on the Mbonge Council board to not having even a councillor today.  It has also lost the Kumba Urban Parliamentary seat, which it won for years.

These challenges have further been compounded by deadly intestinal internal battles, which, observers say, are not unconnected to who will succeed Fru Ndi as the party’s National Chairman.

It is no secret that the party’s exploits in the West and Littoral Regions have, in recent years, been dashed to the wind as local party officials have been on each other’s throat.

In the Littoral Region, for instance, two of the party’s frontline officials, Hon Osih Joshua Nabangi, who is SDF First Vice National President, has been at loggerheads with the Regional Chairman, Hon Jean Michel Nintcheu.

Chances of Biya sacrificing others to favour SDF slim

Even as the window of public political calculations continue to give the SDF hope of enjoying presidential mercy, others say it may also be a very difficult thing for Biya to do.

This, they say, is given to understanding that President Biya’s old friends and diehard CPDM supporters are also hoping to get to the Senate on the strength of his golden signature.

Playing the cards to get 30 persons with an SDF first-time Senatorial appointee, diehard CPDM supporters are saying, will mean some of their comrades hoping to get to the Senate be sacrificed.

That too, they say, is a sacrifice no one is willing to accept, given the political position and climate of the country, which is believed to be inching towards a third republic.