The Head of State, politician and leader of the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement, CPDM, party has been plebiscited to serve as President of the Republic with the support of allied powers.

With a record 43 years in power and possibly eying an eight mandate that could see him rule Cameroon for 50 years, the grounds on which Biya has walked to power in the voters’ rich bastion of the Grand North, is said to be shaky.

The fear of this season is not the constant rhetoric of neglect, which regime critics have for years been highlighting to dissuade people across the Adamawa, North and Far North Regions. 

What appears to be an invisible whirlwind with potential to upset the status quo is said to be stoked by the very persons who incarnate the political platforms that have salvaged Biya and the Biya regime for decades.

Biya and his Grand North political allies have been bedfellows in presidential elections, forming a formidable force against other opposition candidates. The tides this year, however, appear uncertain, especially from the camp of these allies.

While nationwide assurances have been echoed for years within the CPDM asking Biya to run, the Presidential Majority, another group of allied political parties supporting Biya, came in just weeks ago to renew same stand.

Where an air of unusual quietness has been witnessed is across the Grand North. The political parties that very often dislodge the CPDM in municipal and parliamentary elections but toe Biya to power, when presidential polls are organised, have, yet, not said anything.

These are the National Union for Democracy and Progress, UNDP, of Bello Bouba Maigari; National Alliance for Democracy and Progress, ANDP, of Hamadou Mustapha, Cameroon National Salvation Front, FSNC, of Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Movement for the Defense of the Republic, MDR, of the late Dakole Daissala.

Time to sacrifice comfort for the masses?

Analysts say the reading of a possible Grand North divorce with Biya is an unusual possibility, especially given that all the leaders of the allied parties have been guaranteed places in government. 

This, many say, has been their understanding with Biya that has been kept till date.

Bello Bouba, a former Prime Minister, currently serving as Minister of State, Minister of Tourism and Leisure, has been in government since 1997. 

The UNDP also has at least one Senator in the person of its Secretary General, Pierre Flambeau Ngayap. 

Ngayap has been an appointed Senator from the Littoral Region, since 2013, when the Senate came into existence.

Issa Tchiroma Bakary has also been in government for several years. He currently serves as Minister of Employment and Vocational Training, while ANDP leader, Hamadou Mustapha, has for long been serving as Special Duties Minister at the Presidency of the Republic. 

The late Dakolé Daissala was also in government, quitting the stage as a Senator, appointed by the Head of State.  His successor, Paulin Djorwé, is member of the current Senate. 

Having enjoyed this far with Biya without raising eyebrows over anything, the posture of these political leaders vis-à-vis the October poll, many say is, perplexing.

Analysts, most of them, if not all, could be pondering on taking a decisive to push for change and let go of their benefits in government.

Grand North allies to retire Biya from politics?

Unlike previous Presidential polls, this year’s poll has different undertones.  From Biya’s age, 92, to the number of years at the helm of State and other pressing State issues, the pressure for change is huge and looming. 

The political sparks are coupled with some expressing fears of proxy rulers and collaborators of Biya twisting certain key issues about the country.

Pundits say should the UNDP, ANDP, MDR and FSNC opt out of its alliance with Biya’s CPDM in the October rendezvous, it could see reason with those who say it is time for a new Head of State. 

For one thing, Biya was very ambiguous in his respond to a French journalist at the Unity Palace in July 2022, if he was going to retire from politics this year. 

Then, the President had simply said he had a few years left in his current mandate, during which, he was going to decide when the time comes, whether to return to the village or stay on.

Given that the three Northern Regions remain key in deciding who wins the Presidential poll, many are stating that Biya losing the support of the likes of Bello Bouba, Issa Tchiroma and Hamadou Mustapha’s is as good as asking him that it is time to retire and not event contest the election.

Tchiroma sends first divorce signal to Biya

If conjectures about a possible Grand North divorce with Biya were still farfetched, declarations attributed to Issa Tchiroma at a rally in Garoua last week, analysts have quipped, point to something in the often.

Among other things, Tchiroma is said to have in the local Fulfulde language fuelled the embers of a possible break with the Biya regime. 

He is said to have asked FSNC party supporters to massively enroll on the electoral roll to vote and put an end to misery that has plagued their lives for 42 years.

Without mentioning Biya’s name or the CPDM, analysts are authoritatively inferring that Tchiroma was talking of a divorce with the regime in power. 

He is said to have, among other things, told the audience that: “Anyone who invites you to vote for something that is already recognised as the cause of your malaise is your enemy. Do we understand each other”?

“You know that one political party has caused you a problem; your young daughters remain unmarried because the young men have no professional activities (no income), despite their many prayers to obtain suitable men. But as you know, in our context, a man only becomes valid when he has an income-generating activity,” the minister is quoted to have said in Fulfulde.

‘No investment to address widespread misery’

Further thundering that young people are unable to settle down because even in competitive exams they don’t succeed, Tchiroma is further quoted as having said there are no investments worth the salt in the three Northern Regions to empower young people.

“What's more, there is no worthy investment to help them, and they wander around in indescribable misery,” the FSNC leader reportedly said, adding that “it's in these conditions that someone stands up and wants to force you to vote for a person or a political party, whose only project is to bring you more misery. Isn't that a real calamity?”.

‘I’ll be your enemy if I ask you to vote for them’

The political leader is cited as having also asked the population to turn their backs on even him, if he asked them to vote “for those responsible for your misfortunes…”.

He is said to have justified his sharp pronouncements on the fact that, not long from now, he will return to the community and live the reality of life with is people.

“I have nothing more dear to me than you. It's true that we weren't able to get you out of your misery yesterday, but today, if we unite, if we get together, we can do it. You will be put out of your misery,” Tchiroma is said to have detailed.

‘Time for bold choice to end misery’

The politician and Biya ally, is said to have told the crowd that God won’t come down to do things for them. He urged them to do the right thing to end 42 years of misery.

“It's time for everyone to do their job, to register on the electoral roll and get their voter’s card, so that we can make a bold choice that will get us out of the misery of the past 42 years...,’ the minister is said to have declared.

UNDP holds crucial meeting June 28

While the declarations attributed to Tchiroma have thrown many, among them CPDM supporters, into bafflement, Bello Bouba’s UNDP has announced a crucial meeting, June 28, 2025, in Yaounde.

In a release issued June 6, Bello Bouba noted that the meeting will group the UNDP Central Committee and “exceptionally” open to members of the political outfit’s National Council and Permanent Secretaries of the Steering Committees of Auxiliary Organs. 

The note indicated that the agenda of the crucial gathering would be communicated only during the conclave. 

What is divided MDR, silent ANDP up to?

Within the MDR, its position on issues relating to Biya’s re-election, many say, would be easy for the regime to handle. 

This, they are linking to the battle for the party’s leadership. It is a tussle between Senator Paulin Djorwé and the son of the party’s late leader, Tigana Dassi Daissala.

Djorwé was brought to the helm of the party on   December 3, 2022, as head of the transition committee, following Dakole Daisaala’s demise in August of the same year.

In December 2023, Tigana Daissala was voted during an Extraordinary Congress to replace Djorwé. Djorwé later went to court while the Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, wrote to the Presidency, indicating that Tigana is the authentic leader of the party. 

The quarrel is yet to end with many saying it could remain so to frustrate any anti-Biya position with respect to the October poll.

At the level of the ANDP, Hamadou Mustapha so far has remained mute. Pundits say barely days to the convening of the electorate, he will certainly make his party’s position known. 

Silence of Biya allies political strategy? 

Beyond the declarations, difficult-to-decode body language and subtle crusade for change from Biya allies, others say, there could also be a political game.

It is reported that those running the show within the concerned political parties could also be scheming to bargain for better appointments and positioning within government. 

For some, analysts say, it could be a way to get assurance of more appointments, while for other Biya allies, this is the time for a last shot at certain key positions in government and getting compensations for their trusted supporters.

CPDM sensing danger?

While the chorus within the political parties that support Biya in the Grand North Regions, remains incoherent, months to the October poll, recent movements within the CPDM, analysts are saying, show the ruling party is also reading the body language of its traditional allies in the Grand North.

This, they are saying, justifies the multiple missions regime barons, including the Prime Minister, Head of Government, Dr Chief Joseph Dion Ngute, have been staging across the three administrative units in recent times, to stem the political tides. 

This article was first published in The Guardian Post Edition No:3476 of Tuesday June 17, 2025