Difficult time for democracy, sit-tight leaders!.

Yesterday’s coup was the eight within three years in several countries across Francophone Africa. The situation, analysts are now saying, and aptly so, puts to question test democracy across Francophone Africa.

The development, other analysts are also further saying, puts other sit-tight leaders across French-speaking Africa in dire straits.  The sweeping coups, analysts say, send a grim message to those who are planning on eternalising themselves in power.

Ali Bongo’s third term in peril

The ouster of Ali Bongo, came hours after Gabon’s Election Centre, GEC, announced that he had won 64.27 percent of votes in the presidential election held on Sunday August 26. The head of GEC also said Ali’s main challenger in the poll, Albert Ondo Ossa, came second, with 30.77 percent of valid votes cast.

Ondo had also claimed victory, alleging rigging and urging Ali Bongo to step aside. The military take over puts an end to Bongo’s leadership of the country, since 2009. Ali Bongo’s family has ruled Gabon for 56 years. The coup has thus thwarted his third term to lead.

The ailing Gabonese leader, however, issued a short message yesterday, asking friends of Gabon the world over to “make some noise”. Ali Bongo, in the video clip, also said he could not tell what is happening to his wife, son and the country as a whole.

General Brice Clotaire new Gabon strongman?

Yet, the military junta, which has announced the head of the country’s Republican Guard, General Brice Clotaire Oligui, as its leader, made another outing yesterday, indicating that Ali Bongo had been placed under house arrest in the comfort of his family and doctor. 

The military also announced the arrest of Ali Bongo’s son, Noureddin Valentine Bongo, alongside other individuals, for what they said are treasonable offences.

Meanwhile, several world powers and international bodies, reacting to the coup in Gabon, have said they are observing the situation with “keen concern”. 

Cataloguing recent coups across Francophone Africa

Africa had taken a break from soldiers using the gun to access power. But between August 2020 and August 2023, the number of coups have left many disturbed. Sit-tight leaders in particular are among the highest victims of these military takeovers.

Gabon’s yesterday happened a little over a month after soldiers ousted President Mohammed Bazoum of Niger. This was on July 26. Since then, the country has been locked in a battle with the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, backed by Western countries.

Like in Gabon, the case of Niger saw the emergence of General Abdourahamane Tiani, previously head of the Presidential Guard taking over the reins of power.

Before this, ECOWAS was still battling with the situation in Burkina Faso, another French African country that registered two coups between January and September 2022. In January of last year, the Burkinabe military ousted President Roch Kabore. This gave way for Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba to come to power. But Lieutenant Colonel Damiba’s military leadership was ended by another coup in September 2022 that brought a junior officer, Captain Ibrahim Traore, to power.

Burkina Faso’s coup came one year after the head of the Special Forces in Guinea, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya ejected long-serving leader, Alpha Conde, from power.

Before the coup, Alpha Conde had tinkered the constitution, removing term limits. He was poised to seek a third term in office when violence broke out, attracting the military to seize power. Colonel Mamady has promised to return the country to civilian leadership within three years.

The fresh sparks of the unending coups first started in Mali in August 2020. Then, Colonel Assimi Goita led a group of soldiers to end the reign of Ibrahim Bounacar Keita as Mali’s leader.

They reached a short-lived deal with ECOWAS for retired Colonel Bah Ndaw to head a transitional government for 18 months. The retired Colonel Bah Ndaw-led leadership fell out with the military, leading to another coup in May 2021. This gave room for Colonel Assimi Goita to seize power.

Meanwhile, in Chad, observers have described what happened there in April 2021, as a soft coup. This is because after then Chadian leader, Idris Deby Itno, was killed while visiting troops fighting terrorists in the North of the country, his son, General Mahamat Idriss Deby, took over.

The father-to-son transition in Chad sparked protest in the Chadian capital of N’Djamena, but neighbouring leaders and world powers turned a blind eye to the agitations. General Mahamat was named Interim President with a mandate to organise transitional elections within 18 months. But since then, nothing has been done in that light.

Who & in which country is next?

Based on what many say is a caricature of democracy in most African countries, there are fears that the bad examples Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and lately Gabon yesterday, may not be the last. 

Many are now questioning which other leader who has clung to power, through maneuvering the constitution and taking state institutions hostage, will leave power through the barrel of the gun?

Difficult time for democracy

The quick succession with which soldiers have seized power, shortchanging many leaders who came to power through the ballot box albeit criticisms, many are now saying, is further draining the merits of democracy as the best option for governance.

Many have linked the coups to failed political systems and oligarchies that serve a select few and leave the masses without any future and hope.

The concept of democracy, others are saying, has now come under attack because leaders voted to serve have turned themselves into everlasting ‘monarchs’, ignoring the needs of the population.

The argument has been explained by the popular support soldiers have enjoyed across countries where they have seized power. The people have been seen flooding the streets to hail soldiers for putting an end to several of such regimes. 

Missing fruits of democracy sparking coups?

The concerns which soldiers have advanced to back the takeovers are similar, irrespective of country. The issues raised are governance frailties that point to democracy as having come to die in Francophone Africa.

Issues of entrenching dynasties in power like in Gabon are among provoking factors of coups.  In some cases, leaders have tinkered the constitution to remain in power, sparking protest. There is also the widespread concern of rising poverty, insecurity and lack of basic social services.